An Aerospace Simulation Scenario
The Aerospace simulation uses initial resource deposits as estimated by British Petroleum (BP). Total initial deposits were 1.3 × 1012 tons of coal, 1.2 × 1012 barrels of oil, and 3.3 × 106 tons of uranium ore at the end of 2006. When the simulation is run, shortages of essential resources develop in some areas from changing rainfall patterns or the depletion of energy sources. These shortages may be met byexchanges of food or industrial production, or by shifting water and energy resources to food production. Where
shortages cannot be mitigated, the portion of the population affected is flagged as either migrating or in conflict. If the population moves to a new cell but still does not have sufficient resources, it decreases to the minimally supportable number of individuals. The simulation records the difference between the population growth and decrease on a monthly basis. Cell populations suffering from resource shortages have the option of migrating to a neighboring cell if it has sufficient food and water (the simulation assumes that such cells will accept refugees), or randomly competing with either the population within its cell or a neighboring cell. Competition with another cell involves migrating into a target cell without sufficient resources to support the new combined population. In cases where spreading shortages occur with energy in short supply, the area is labeled as a low-intensity conflict. In areas of water or food shortages, where energy resources and production are not in short supply, the area is labeled as a high-intensity conflict.